Northern Victoria’s winter cropping season is getting under way with a mix of renewed confidence and lingering uncertainty, as growers take advantage of recent rain while keeping a close eye on tightening margins and what lies ahead.

In the Dookie region, sowing began in earnest after Easter, with canola going in first, followed by beans and wheat.

Local grower Chloe Harmer said the seasonal timing was encouraging, for now.

About 100mm of rain has fallen over the past month, helping to rebuild soil moisture after a prolonged dry spell.

“We’d had nothing until then... the bucket was empty basically,” Ms Harmer said.

“And then with that 100mm, most of the stored moisture is there, so we’ve got a chance to have a decent season.”

Despite the improved start, confidence remains guarded.

Seasonal optimism is far from locked in, particularly with talk of an El Niño pattern emerging later in the year.

Weather concerns are being compounded by rising input costs, with fertiliser supply and pricing shaping up as one of the biggest unknowns for the season ahead.

Bendigo Bank’s agribusiness insights for April have highlighted ongoing pressure on farm margins, driven by elevated fertiliser prices and global supply risks.

Urea availability and affordability between now and spring is already causing unease across northern Victoria.

“With the price of urea and the availability of it, who knows,” Ms Harmer said.

Fellow grower Chris Ludeman said supply during the key growing months would be critical.

“It’s the supply of urea from April until September that’s going to be the concern,” he said.

“We’ve got some, but not enough... it all depends on rainfall.”

For many growers, the challenge is whether crops can be adequately fed if seasonal conditions improve, with banks warning higher input costs are squeezing profitability even in years with solid production.

“It’s all good and well that we can get the crop in the ground now,” Ms Harmer said.

“But can we feed it? Can we get it through to harvest?”

Still, pressing pause isn’t an option.

“You can’t stop,” Mr Ludeman said.

“You’ve got to put the crops in and hope things line up when you need them.”

That cautious optimism is echoed in the broader outlook.

ABARES is forecasting a strong season for Victoria, with winter crop production tipped to rise 30 per cent from last year, to 10.1 million tonnes, the third‑highest on record.

For northern Victorian growers, the season has begun better than expected, but rising costs mean the real test will come as winter unfolds.

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Thursday, 3rd January 2030

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