It’s decision time for Farrer residents.

It’s been almost three months since long-time Member for Farrer Sussan Ley announced her retirement from politics.

Holding the seat since 2001, Ley had climbed her way to the top of the Liberal ladder and was Leader of the Opposition.

That was until a leadership challenge from Angus Taylor, who had the votes to oust Ms Ley on February 13.

When announcing the vote result, Ley also announced her departure from politics, and the reaction from those interesting in taking her place in Farrer was swift.

Within days, The Nationals had formally entered the race, as had Independent Michelle Milthorpe.

Ms Milthorpe was runner-up to Ms Ley at the 2025 election, contributing to an almost nine per cent swing against the incumbent.

By the time nominations had closed, 12 candidates had emerged in Farrer.

In ballot order they are: Raissa Butkowski (Liberal Party), Michelle Milthorpe (Independent), Jamie Bonnefin (Gerard Rennick People First), Brad Robertson (The Nationals), Aimee Lee Pearson (Legalise Cannabis Party), Richard Hendrie (The Greens), Roger Woodward (Independent), David Farley (One Nation), Rebecca Scriven (Family First), Lucas James Ellis (Affordable Housing Now - Sustainable Australia Party), Gary Pappin (Independent), and Peter Sinclair (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers).

Despite Farrer being a safe Coalition seat since its formation in 1949, polling and commentary during the by-election process has indicated an appetite for change.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation candidate David Farley and Ms Milthorpe are leading the pack with short odds, with The Nationals and Liberals coming a distant third and fourth in polling to date.

A similar appetite for change was demonstrated at state level in 2019, when the Coalition safe seat of Murray went to then Shooters, Fishers & Farmers Party candidate Helen Dalton. She later transitioned to an Independent in 2022, and is now serving her second term as local member.

Ms Dalton believes the handling of water policy by successive governments has been a key driver in the swing against the main parties at this by-election.

“The eyes of the nation are finally on Farrer, and for the first time in decades the big parties cannot pretend they have not seen what is happening to the food bowl of Australia.

“Labor did not even have the guts to run a candidate. They stood back because they know the buyback policy they pushed has gutted irrigation communities from Wakool to Wentworth, and they could not face turning up at a town meeting in Deniliquin or Griffith and defending it.

“The big parties have spent years feeding us inquiry after inquiry to keep us quiet. Now that they are staring down a by-election in the engine room of the country, they are finally listening.

“Farrer is the test.”

The following is our analysis of the by-election candidates polling in the top four.

One Nation - David Farley

Farley is the current favourite to win the seat and continue the rise of One Nation, but his campaign has not been without controversy. There have been accusations around past misogynistic comments, crime comments that copped criticism in Griffith, concerns around material shared on social media and claims he has had a long journey to find a political home, having previously sought pre-selection for The Nationals and Labor, and endorsed his rival Michelle Milthorpe at the federal election only 12 months ago.

There has also been doubt cast around whether Farley will last two years with One Nation if elected.

That’s a lot of negatives.

However, on the plus side the electorate is no doubt looking for change and the straight talking approach of ON leader Pauline Hanson is attractive to many voters. That is why Farley is leading the polls. He has the added benefit of receiving Coalition preferences above Milthorpe, which is likely to be crucial.

Additionally, a two-year local Member may also be an advantage. Farrer would be a marginal seat at the 2028 election, giving the major parties an opportunity to open their purse strings with lots of promises, which we have not seen for decades. Some would say it could be ‘two years lost’, others may argue it will provide two years of ongoing political attention with the potential for long-term gain.

His policy priorities include disciplined water and land management aligned with national security, sustainable immigration settings, investment in regional hospitals and schools, secure career pathways for young families, and modern telecommunications and infrastructure.

Independent - Michelle Milthorpe

The key question around Milthorpe’s chances is quite simple: Will she survive the full-on attack that she is a ‘teal’ independent? It may not matter too much in Albury, where she is expected to again poll very well, but it could make all the difference in regional parts of the electorate, including Deniliquin and the Southern Riverina.

Milthorpe says less than three per cent of her campaign is funded by Climate 200 and billionaire Simon Holmes a Court, with no strings attached, and that if elected she will always vote in the best interests of her electorate.

From a political perspective, her opponents identified the Climate 200 connection as her Achilles heel and, in fact, probably the only avenue of attack they had … and they haven’t missed.

With all the pile-on it has been a difficult issue for Milthorpe to avoid, as she attempts to highlight that party politics has let the electorate down, and we need a new direction. It’s hard to argue with that.

On the policy front, Milthorpe has had a strong focus on health and water. She has heard concerns across the electorate about the shortage of GPs and developed a policy to build a pipeline of doctors who live, train and stay in the regions. She wants a new hospital on a greenfield site for Albury, and says she will also seek funding for a new hospital in Deniliquin.

On water, Milthorpe has strongly condemned water buybacks and wants them to cease, and says she will call for a Royal Commission into water.

The Nationals - Brad Robertson

Robertson spent 29 years in the Australian Army and has been heavily involved in the Albury community, including Chair of the Albury/Wodonga Regional Cancer Trust.

He says he is fighting for:

From a local perspective, the big question is: Have The Nationals finally realised they must do more to support rural and regional Australia?

At state level The Nationals have lost the seat of Murray, beaten in the last two elections for the seat, after failing to address key local issues, including water reform.

At federal level, under former leader David Littleproud they kowtowed to the Liberals, with Queenslander Littleproud tagging along when he was Water Minister with his commitment to deliver the Basin Plan “in full and on time”, despite its obvious failings.

However, The Nats appear to have a new lease on life under leader Matt Canavan, who has been active across the electorate, including Deniliquin, during the by-election campaign.

The polls suggest Robertson will achieve less than 10 per cent of primary votes and if the voting trend is anything near this, he will be quickly eliminated. But perhaps this is a trial run for the next Federal election, scheduled for 2028.

Robertson was impressive at the Meet the Candidates forum in Deniliquin, and with the experience of this campaign under his belt he may be better positioned for a genuine tilt at the seat in a couple of years, especially if the next Member for Farrer does not perform to expectations.

Liberal - Raissa Butkowski

It’s hard to envision anything other than the electorate sending a strong message to the Liberal Party, and that does not bode well for its candidate, Raissa Butkowski.

Butkowski is described as a community lawyer who has helped fight for families navigating hardship and farmers dealing with uncertainty.

As an Albury City Councillor, she brings experience in making decisions around infrastructure and budgets. As a Board Member of the Murray Darling Association, Butkowski advocates for water security, which is so vital to this region.

Previously, she’s also been a lab technician at a pathology service and a tennis coach, and has degrees in law, biomedical science and nutrition. She is studying for a Master of Business Administration.

Butkowski says she will fight for families struggling with the cost of living, small businesses facing rising costs, and farmers facing uncertainty, while working to improve local health services and infrastructure.

But with widespread discontent and an electorate looking for change, it’s impossible to give her much hope of being our next Member for Farrer.

Too many people across Farrer believe they have been left behind; used as pawns in a political game. Even as a long-time member of the Coalition Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet, her predecessor Sussan Ley was unable to influence the change to the Basin Plan that many in the community have been calling for, nor access to health services which is an issue from one end of the electorate to the other. There’s also a view the Liberal Party treated Ley harshly during her short tenure as leader, which will also result in loss of votes this time around.

Butkowski looks like she will be the one to suffer when disgruntled voters take their baseball bat to the Liberal Party.

Whichever way you look at it, down the track the Libs face a long road back.

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Sunday, 1st October 2028

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