Victoria experienced a warm and dry 2025, with Bureau of Meteorology data highlighting ongoing challenges for farmers, irrigators and water managers across the state.

Nationally, the January to November period was the fourth-warmest on record since 1910, with the mean temperature 1.25°C above the 1961-1990 average.

Victoria was part of the trend, with persistent warmth throughout the year.

Summer 2024-25 was the second-warmest on record nationally, while autumn brought record warm daytime temperatures for Victoria, driven by frequent high-pressure systems over southern Australia.

Rainfall, however, has been the dominant concern for Victorian producers.

While national rainfall for January to November was close to average, Victoria recorded below to very much below average rainfall, placing the state in the lowest 10 per cent of years since records began in 1900.

Dry conditions were particularly evident through spring, with September to November rainfall below average across much of northern Victoria, limiting soil moisture recovery ahead of summer cropping and pasture growth.

These dry conditions have translated directly into declining water resources. Across southern Australia, including Victoria, dry catchments and low inflows led to falling surface water storage levels through 2025.

By the end of November, Australia’s total surface water storage sat at 69.3 per cent of accessible capacity, down from 73 per cent at the start of the year.

Within the Murray-Darling Basin, which underpins much of northern Victoria’s irrigation sector, major storages have been declining since late 2022.

Basin storage volumes fell from 73 per cent at the beginning of 2025 to 66.2 per cent by the end of November, reflecting dry catchments and high irrigation demand during the season.

Melbourne’s water storages also fell significantly, dropping from 86.6 per cent at the start of January to 74.8 per cent by the end of November.

December continued Victoria’s mixed seasonal pattern, with below-average rainfall and variable temperatures.

The state recorded an average of 36mm rainfall for the month, 24 per cent below the long-term average, with drier conditions in parts of the south, far east and north-west.

Mean maximum temperatures averaged 25.9°C, slightly above average, while mean minimums were close to average overall.

Several sites recorded notable cold and warm extremes, reflecting ongoing climate variability affecting agricultural conditions.

Looking ahead, BOM outlooks suggest limited immediate relief.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average across most of Australia, including Victoria, with a 60 to over 80 per cent chance of warmer-than-average days.

There is also an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures in parts of Victoria.

Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average, raising the risk of warm nights that can stress crops and livestock.

Rainfall signals remain weak, with roughly equal chances of wetter or drier conditions over the coming months.

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Tuesday, 28th July 2026

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