The skies over Shepparton have stayed stubbornly dry this autumn, with barely a drop of rain falling across April and now well into May — raising red flags for farmers and their winter crops.

April recorded a meagre 1.8mm of rain, compared to the usual 35.8mm, and the first 13 days of May have brought nothing at all, despite an average for the month of 35.3mm.

While March offered a brief reprieve with a wetter-than-average 58.4mm, the dry spell that followed has left paddocks dusty and moisture levels dangerously low.

Craig Reynolds, who farms 1700 hectares just outside of Congupna, with 1200 hectares under irrigation, says it’s some of the driest lead-ups to winter he’s seen in years.

“We’ve had no rain for two months, which is pretty unusual,” Mr Reynolds said.

“Even in the dry years, you’d expect at least 10 or 15mm in May.

“Last year we got 18mm on Mother’s Day, that was enough to get things moving.

“But this year, there’s just nothing.”

Mr Reynolds grows a mix of wheat, canola, faba beans, cereal hay in winter and maize in summer.

While the summer crops are irrigated, the lack of rain is making it difficult to get winter crops out of the ground.

“There’s just not enough moisture in the soil to germinate properly,” he said.

“We’ve planted a few paddocks, but without a decent rain soon, we’ll be looking at lower yields from the start.

“Every day you delay planting, you lose a bit of yield.

“That’s just how it works. Same amount of work, less crop at the end of it.”

The tough conditions follow an already unpredictable 2024.

Mr Reynolds recalled how waterlogged soils from heavy late spring rains delayed their summer maize planting by nearly three weeks.

“From April to mid-November last year, we only had about 153mm, half what we needed.

“Then we copped 163mm in just a few weeks.

“It looked good on paper, but it came all at once, and it wasn’t much use.”

That sudden change in weather patterns left farmers scrambling.

Some paddocks meant for maize were switched to forage crops instead, which Mr Reynolds said have all since been sold.

Now, with the soil drying and no rain in sight, some irrigators are turning to carryover water as a safety net.

“We’re buying a bit just in case this dry runs into winter.

“It’s risky irrigating this late in the season, but looking at the forecast, I almost wish I’d done more of it last week.”

The VFF UDV president Bernie Free says the dry conditions are among the worst in decades, and many growers are struggling with reduced soil moisture and tight sowing windows.

According to the Australian Crop Report, winter crop yields across Victoria are forecast to sit 11 per cent below the 10-year average, with limited rainfall during critical growing periods taking the blame.

Despite the challenges, Mr Reynolds remains philosophical.

“It’s frustrating, but we can’t complain too much.

“The weather’s been beautiful to work in — just wish it would rain.”

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Thursday, 11th September 2025

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