In the latest episode of the Bendigo Bank agribusiness podcast, Unpacking Ag, agricultural analysts Sean Hickey and Joe Boyle discuss the results of the 2024 winter cropping season, before looking ahead to what conditions farmers might be facing in the upcoming season.

Mr Boyle said wheat production saw mixed results across the states.

”From a national perspective, we had a strong season with the third largest wheat crop on record, assisted by big production increases in Western Australia, NSW and Queensland,” he said.

“Quality overall was skewed towards the lower end, with an increased percentage of feed wheat and ASW, while the percentage of AH wheat was lower, so from a tonnage perspective, feed wheat was the major change, up from about 1.5 million tonnes nationally in 2023 to around 5.8 million tonnes in 2024.

“The extremely dry conditions in South Australia have led to what is estimated to be the lowest production figure for the state since 2008 and Victoria has also seen the lowest level of wheat production since extremely adverse conditions in 2018, with both states down around 40 per cent year on year.”

Looking ahead, Mr Boyle said the three-month outlooks for April to June and May to July, currently have large areas across the southern states at a greater than 50 per cent chance of having below median rainfall.

However, the rainfall outlook is a bit more positive for northern NSW and Queensland and generally more favourable for Western Australia through May to July.

“Unfortunately, South Australia and Victoria are forecast to have a well below 50 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall in May at this stage, paired with a forecast for warmer than average weather, which is also likely to feed into drying conditions,” Mr Boyle said.

“Australian Crop Forecasters is projecting wheat, barley and canola production to be lower this year, reverting closer to the longer-term average levels.”

Listen to the latest Unpacking Ag podcast with full insights and seasonal outlooks here: https://www.bendigobank.com.au/business/industries/agribusiness/agriculture-insights/

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Saturday, 31st May 2025

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