With a few years of wet summers and unpredictable weather events, the autumn break is top of mind this year.

Agriculture Victoria seasonal risk agronomist Dale Grey said the forecast looks like a return to order.

“We have a typical outcome outlook for autumn which is where most of the models are completely sitting on the fence with a neutral outcome,” Mr Grey said.

“One model with a dry south-west but the other nine or 10 that I look at are sitting on the fence at neutral and the problem we have is that at this time of the year we have poor predictabilities.”

He said what growers will be looking for is a “good moisture source in the tropics to link up with a good rainfall trigger” as an ideal start to the season.

The current models are predicting average rainfall, which, if to come true, would be “good”.

“I think it’s a case of people in autumn need to have plans for all eventualities,” Mr Grey said.

“A lot of farmers will be quite prepared to sow their crops dry in late April, in May if it hasn't rained and then when it does eventually rain those crops will germinate and come up.

“History says that that has been a really good strategy in north-east Victoria that has seldom been a silly decision

“Those crops that come up on the opening rain and nearly always better yield and better growing than the ones that get so later, so you plant the seeds later, and they come up slower and the ones that germinate on the very opening rain, if it's a late seasonal break, they jump out of the ground quite quickly.”

Looking at the last few years of weather, with the October 2022 floods and a damaging storm in January 2024 for northern Victoria, this year looks like a welcome change, Mr Grey said.

“I perceive that the previous three years we’re both wetter and milder over summer which was more atypical and this year has been dry and warm,” he said.

“The whole of summer has been 2°C to 3°C warmer than normal which puts it in the highest 10 per cent of records so that's not normal.

“That’s definitely warmer than normal, and it’s been quite dry, but I've had plenty of dry summers where nothing much has fallen.

“And let's face it, rain that falls in summer is good for tanks, and it's good for people's gardens.”

In terms of what crops you’ll see this year, Nutrien Ag Solutions Shepparton agronomist Ky Shapcott said it’s a “standard mix”.

“We’re looking at five per cent pulses, five per cent barley, 50 per cent wheat and 40 per cent canola,” Mr Shapcott said.

“It's pretty sanded that sort of mix.

“I'd say, if anything, on some farms the pulses percentage would be higher, but over the whole clients we’ve got it’s only about five per cent, but there are a lot more growers looking at pulses in the system.”

Mr Shapcott echoed Mr Grey’s comments, pointing to dry sowing being the ideal this year.

“Some might want to hold off but over the last few years, a lot of our growers have realised that dry sowing, no matter how dry it is, dry sowed crops are always the best crops,” Mr Shapcott said.

“In the last few years we’ve seen on the autumn break, some blokes are getting massive rain, getting near 100mm they can't get back on the paddock for a week so it’s much easier just to get around nice and early and know that that’s not going to be a worry.”

He said that the consensus among growers is that the season is mild.

“A lot of the blokes I’ve been talking to, they’re not concerned about the weather, it’s back to what it should be, that’s the discussion,” Mr Shapcott said.

“We’re just back to normal and there’s nothing wrong with that as long as we get the autumn break to come with it.

“The biggest thing people worry about is are we going to get an autumn break?”

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Tuesday, 18th February 2025

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