The latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey released by Meat & Livestock Australia has shown that producers are confident in the sector’s outlook.

It has also signalled producers are maintaining stable herd management strategies despite regional, national and global challenges.

The April edition of the 2025 survey, of 3116 grass-fed beef producers across Australia, provides a comprehensive snapshot of herd demographics, producer sentiment, breeding and sales intentions, and market dynamics.

Producer sentiment nationally has strengthened with a net sentiment score of +53, up from +47 in November 2024.

Northern producers reported the highest confidence at +65, while stronger seasonal conditions in Western Australia resulted in a significant rebound in sentiment, rising to +14 from -25 a year earlier.

When producers were surveyed about herd intentions, 26 per cent of producers plan to increase their herd size over the next 12 months, while 56 per cent intend to maintain current levels. Only 19 per cent expect to reduce herd size.

MLA’s market information manager Stephen Bignell said these figures were consistent with the previous survey and reflected a stable outlook across both northern and southern production systems.

“These intentions reflect a cautious but optimistic approach by producers,” he said.

“The majority are maintaining herd size, which suggests confidence in current market conditions but also awareness of ongoing risks such as trade uncertainty (49 per cent), concern about weather (29 per cent) and prices and input costs (17 per cent).”

The April 2025 survey was conducted during a period of mixed seasonal and market conditions.

At that time, northern Australia experienced significant rainfall and flooding, which limited survey participation in central and south-western Queensland but improved pasture conditions and market optimism in other areas.

In contrast, southern Australia continued to face dry and drought conditions, influencing breeding and sales strategies.

Global market dynamics also played a role in shaping producer sentiment.

Increased demand from China, ongoing herd rebuilding in the United States, and evolving tariff arrangements contributed to both optimism and uncertainty.

Producers cited improving prices, stronger seasonal conditions, and better market access as key reasons for a more positive outlook.

However, many were concerned about geopolitical instability, rising input costs, and regulatory pressures.

Sales activity remains robust, with producers reporting a total of 4.82 million head sold or expected to be sold in the first half of 2025.

Sales were evenly split between the first and second quarters, with southern producers reporting slightly higher sales in Q1 and northern producers anticipating stronger activity in Q2.

“Southern producers’ higher sales in Q1 are primarily due to earlier seasonal turn-off patterns and the need to manage feed availability during drier conditions,” Mr Bignell said.

“In contrast, northern producers are likely benefiting from improved pasture conditions following significant rainfall, allowing them to hold stock longer and plan for increased sales in Q2.”

The Beef Producer Intentions Survey was designed by MLA to support the industry with reliable data and is used by MLA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It is one of the inputs into the MLA beef industry forecasting models.

To view the full results, visit: https://www.mla.com.au/

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Thursday, 21st September 2023

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