Uptake of drugs like Ozempic, which suppress the appetite and make users feel full more quickly, have been listed among trends and drivers that may affect Australia’s agriculture sector in the next five years.

“While it is unlikely to be a game changer in 2025 for Australian food and agri products, the impact of reduced food consumption by individuals taking these medications should not be overlooked,” Rabobank says.

Changed eating patterns due to the rising use of anti-obesity drugs joins a shift towards in-home and less alcohol consumption, and increasing demand for dairy products tailored to older consumers, as some of the top global trends in food and agriculture set to be felt in Australia in the next five years.

Rabobank global strategists have examined the top trends “from farm to fork along the global supply chain for food and agriculture to 2030” and identified a number of major macro factors set to impact right across the sector out to the end of the decade.

These include changing trade dynamics due to potential tariffs and government policies, an ageing global population, rapid innovation and adoption of AI across the supply chain and a continuing focus on sustainability (with 2030 approaching as the deadline for a number of policy and corporate climate targets).

Geopolitics, tariffs and trade dynamics

RaboResearch Australia and New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel said the impacts of geopolitics and potential new trade tariffs were expected to be increasingly felt across the global food and agribusiness supply chain in the next five years.

“Under another Trump presidency, or ‘Trump 2.0’, for many exporters dealing with the US, but also China, the threatened US import tariffs and potentially arising trade wars are major concern on the way to 2030,” he said.

Australia’s food and agri sector is closely watching developments, Stefan said, “especially when it comes to beef, as in recent months the United States has been importing more beef than Australia’s traditional major markets, such as Japan, South Korea or China”.

More drugs, less food

The use of so-called anti-obesity medications is already starting to have a discernible impact on the food industry in the US. And other countries — particularly in Europe and Asia — might follow suit.

AOMs are predicted to become used by larger percentages of the population to control hunger to achieve weight loss and improve health.

Studies show users of AOMs often cut down their consumption of calorie-dense and processed foods while their grocery spend on nutrient-rich and perceived healthy foods, like yoghurt and fresh produce, rises.

“Some call this trend ‘no-hunger games’ as these drugs reduce appetite, leading to a decrease in calorie intake and a shift away from sweet and high-calorie foods, and from alcohol, towards more protein-rich options,” Stefan said.

Dairy demographics

At the dairy counter, an ageing global population is expected to drive demand for dairy products tailored to older consumers.

“As people age, they often seek out products that support their health and wellbeing, such as protein shakes and medical nutrition,” Stefan said.

“And this trend presents opportunities for the dairy industry to develop new products that cater to the needs of older consumers.

“This so-called ‘active silvers’ group of the population represents a growing category. China, for example, by 2030 is expected to have 100 million more people over the age of 55 than it did in 2020.”

In terms of dairy overall, the largest demand growth is seen in South-East Asia, Africa and other developing countries, creating opportunities for dairy-exporting nations who potentially may struggle to keep up with this pace of demand growth through 2035.

Rise of the machines

Autonomous machinery and AI are transforming farming operations around the world, and this trend is expected to continue at speed in the coming five years.

Stefan said the use of autonomous machinery — such as driverless helicopters and large drones for crop spraying — was becoming more widespread.

“Labour-intense sectors like fresh produce are already using these technologies and are expected to further adopt them for tasks that can reduce manual labour like spraying, planting, harvesting, processing and packaging,” he said.

“Other farming sectors are also expected to increasingly adopt these technologies where they can improve efficiency, reduce labour costs and enhance precision.”

Other trends

Among Rabobank’s other top trends in food and agriculture to 2030 are:

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Sunday, 4th June 2023

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